{
  "signals": [
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
      "market_id": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "marketId": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?",
      "headline": "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31 odds jump from 14% to 75% over 7d",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "event_id": "715500",
      "eventId": "715500",
      "event_slug": "spider-man-brand-new-day-total-domestic-gross-by-august-31-20260716181307512",
      "eventSlug": "spider-man-brand-new-day-total-domestic-gross-by-august-31-20260716181307512",
      "event_title": "\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" total domestic gross by August 31?",
      "eventTitle": "\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" total domestic gross by August 31?",
      "condition_id": "0xfa52f5817ea613138cbd376abf4adf5d128dcee82c7b04751409577b70cb15bc",
      "question_id": "0x9ece6daee972fc3046f61b1b97708c60dda245fd4618b72e407f124960f37a06",
      "yes_token_id": "90637634602465887787679268906394947498675150453246427560023668237516913996412",
      "no_token_id": "104048927254391605559503338438251940033005756348725037395683942528584904565700",
      "market_start_date": "2026-07-17T23:35:53.846212Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "marketSlug": "will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "7d",
      "dominant_window": "7d",
      "current_probability": 74.85,
      "probability": 74.85,
      "previous_probability": 14.0,
      "previousProbability": 14.0,
      "delta_points": 60.85,
      "deltaPoints": 60.85,
      "volume_24h": 59783.571749,
      "volume24h": 59783.571749,
      "volume_window": 159470.17561400004,
      "volumeWindow": 159470.17561400004,
      "volumeRaw": 159470.17561400004,
      "relevant_volume": 159470.17561400004,
      "relevantVolume": 159470.17561400004,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 69866.51148,
      "liquidityRaw": 69866.51148,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 78.0,
      "editorialScore": 78.0,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"7d\", \"event_id\": \"715500\", \"event_slug\": \"spider-man-brand-new-day-total-domestic-gross-by-august-31-20260716181307512\", \"event_title\": \"\\\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\\\" total domestic gross by August 31?\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 78.0, \"homepage_score\": 78.0, \"live_move_score\": 100.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 78.0,
        "live_move_score": 100.0,
        "homepage_score": 78.0
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960:7d:up:4:7",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960:7d:up:4:7",
      "source_relative_quality": 16.0,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:715500",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:715500",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
          "question": "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 65.85,
              "delta_points": 9.0,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 46.65,
              "delta_points": 28.2,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 26.75,
              "delta_points": 48.1,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 14.0,
              "delta_points": 60.85,
              "volume_window": 159470.17561400004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
          "previous_probability": 14.0,
          "delta_points": 60.85,
          "volume_window": 159470.17561400004,
          "volume_24h": 59783.571749,
          "liquidity": 69866.51148,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
          "question": "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 65.85,
              "delta_points": 9.0,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 46.65,
              "delta_points": 28.2,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 26.75,
              "delta_points": 48.1,
              "volume_window": 59783.571749
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
              "previous_probability": 14.0,
              "delta_points": 60.85,
              "volume_window": 159470.17561400004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 74.85000000000001,
          "previous_probability": 14.0,
          "delta_points": 60.85,
          "volume_window": 159470.17561400004,
          "volume_24h": 59783.571749,
          "liquidity": 69866.51148,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 3,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 3,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 2,
      "editorialWindowRank": 2,
      "editorial_topic_key": "event-id:715500",
      "editorialTopicKey": "event-id:715500",
      "story_window": "7d",
      "storyWindow": "7d",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "7d",
        "event_id": "715500",
        "event_slug": "spider-man-brand-new-day-total-domestic-gross-by-august-31-20260716181307512",
        "event_title": "\"Spider-Man: Brand New Day\" total domestic gross by August 31?",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 78.0,
          "homepage_score": 78.0,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960_7d",
        "market_id": "polymarket:will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "will-the-total-domestic-gross-for-spider-man-brand-new-day-be-at-least-900m-by-august-31-20260717232947960",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 74.85,
        "previous_probability": 14.0,
        "delta_points": 60.85,
        "window": "7d",
        "volume_24h": 59783.571749,
        "liquidity": 69866.51148,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 78.0,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 78.0,
          "homepage_score": 78.0,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "7d",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
      "market_id": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "marketId": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
      "headline": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or odds jump from 23% to 52% over 30d",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "event_id": "48361",
      "eventId": "48361",
      "event_slug": "ballon-dor-winner-2026",
      "eventSlug": "ballon-dor-winner-2026",
      "event_title": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
      "eventTitle": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
      "condition_id": "0x12dc2b61723b2a54fc1947a307389b5f32038e7a29a0e936ad1fe410b969d06a",
      "question_id": "0x178e5d521fe40d169fbd095a16e69d08c294b1f6de6c38dfcdeeee0c66990c07",
      "yes_token_id": "72710166409980712002774407052535905861151156175854323762835102340552522606004",
      "no_token_id": "77740376296468109233042620775325425521895874827413068707200627224591548200577",
      "market_start_date": "2025-09-22T23:39:11.955028Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-10-31T00:00:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "marketSlug": "will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "30d",
      "dominant_window": "30d",
      "current_probability": 51.55,
      "probability": 51.55,
      "previous_probability": 23.35,
      "previousProbability": 23.35,
      "delta_points": 28.2,
      "deltaPoints": 28.2,
      "volume_24h": 29618.06756300001,
      "volume24h": 29618.06756300001,
      "volume_window": 2061497.9647429972,
      "volumeWindow": 2061497.9647429972,
      "volumeRaw": 2061497.9647429972,
      "relevant_volume": 2061497.9647429972,
      "relevantVolume": 2061497.9647429972,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 443255.29036,
      "liquidityRaw": 443255.29036,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 76.76,
      "editorialScore": 76.76,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"30d\", \"event_id\": \"48361\", \"event_slug\": \"ballon-dor-winner-2026\", \"event_title\": \"Ballon d'Or Winner 2026\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 76.76, \"homepage_score\": 76.76, \"live_move_score\": 100.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 76.76,
        "live_move_score": 100.0,
        "homepage_score": 76.76
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor:30d:up:1:5",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor:30d:up:1:5",
      "source_relative_quality": 13.936842,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:48361",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:48361",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 52.75,
              "delta_points": -1.2,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 51.85,
              "delta_points": -0.3,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 53.55,
              "delta_points": -2.0,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 46.05,
              "delta_points": 5.5,
              "volume_window": 378646.2774099996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 23.35,
              "delta_points": 28.2,
              "volume_window": 2061497.9647429972
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 51.55,
          "previous_probability": 23.35,
          "delta_points": 28.2,
          "volume_window": 2061497.9647429972,
          "volume_24h": 29618.06756300001,
          "liquidity": 443255.29036,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 11886.094336000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.35,
              "delta_points": -0.25,
              "volume_window": 180649.455627
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 12.3,
              "delta_points": -11.2,
              "volume_window": 949126.9528170018
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
          "previous_probability": 12.3,
          "delta_points": -11.2,
          "volume_window": 949126.9528170018,
          "volume_24h": 11886.094336000002,
          "liquidity": 247551.68082,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 21.65,
              "delta_points": -0.2,
              "volume_window": 10268.3812
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 24.95,
              "delta_points": -3.5,
              "volume_window": 210429.08399100023
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 7.5,
              "delta_points": 13.95,
              "volume_window": 1537838.4394100015
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 21.45,
          "previous_probability": 7.5,
          "delta_points": 13.95,
          "volume_window": 1537838.4394100015,
          "volume_24h": 10268.3812,
          "liquidity": 225277.4222,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.05,
              "delta_points": 0.2,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 8.85,
              "delta_points": 0.4,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.55,
              "delta_points": -0.3,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.65,
              "delta_points": -0.4,
              "volume_window": 160877.566687
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 25.0,
              "delta_points": -15.75,
              "volume_window": 1227748.194995001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 9.25,
          "previous_probability": 25.0,
          "delta_points": -15.75,
          "volume_window": 1227748.194995001,
          "volume_24h": 35136.225738,
          "liquidity": 197535.43853,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 5.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 5.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 10.5,
              "delta_points": -5.0,
              "volume_window": 319856.810127
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.5,
          "previous_probability": 10.5,
          "delta_points": -5.0,
          "volume_window": 319856.810127,
          "volume_24h": 174032.05022599996,
          "liquidity": 189300.7248,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.45,
              "delta_points": -0.1,
              "volume_window": 24206.871170000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.35,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 24206.871170000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.25,
              "delta_points": 0.1,
              "volume_window": 234305.84256199995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 9.9,
              "delta_points": -6.55,
              "volume_window": 1693026.964686001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.35,
          "previous_probability": 3.45,
          "delta_points": -0.1,
          "volume_window": 24206.871170000002,
          "volume_24h": 24206.871170000002,
          "liquidity": 186622.10018,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 3.25,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 3.2,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 2.4,
              "delta_points": 0.8,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 2.15,
              "volume_window": 224373.97880900005
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 0.65,
              "delta_points": 2.55,
              "volume_window": 848807.8612980003
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.2,
          "previous_probability": 1.05,
          "delta_points": 2.15,
          "volume_window": 224373.97880900005,
          "volume_24h": 34441.698750999996,
          "liquidity": 120185.40751,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.5,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 17686.052854
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.35,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 17686.052854
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.3,
              "volume_window": 87155.775381
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.35,
          "previous_probability": 1.5,
          "delta_points": -0.15,
          "volume_window": 17686.052854,
          "volume_24h": 17686.052854,
          "liquidity": 95860.99406,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 52.75,
              "delta_points": -1.2,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 51.85,
              "delta_points": -0.3,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 53.55,
              "delta_points": -2.0,
              "volume_window": 29618.06756300001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 46.05,
              "delta_points": 5.5,
              "volume_window": 378646.2774099996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 51.55,
              "previous_probability": 23.35,
              "delta_points": 28.2,
              "volume_window": 2061497.9647429972
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 51.55,
          "previous_probability": 23.35,
          "delta_points": 28.2,
          "volume_window": 2061497.9647429972,
          "volume_24h": 29618.06756300001,
          "liquidity": 443255.29036,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 11886.094336000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.35,
              "delta_points": -0.25,
              "volume_window": 180649.455627
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 12.3,
              "delta_points": -11.2,
              "volume_window": 949126.9528170018
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
          "previous_probability": 12.3,
          "delta_points": -11.2,
          "volume_window": 949126.9528170018,
          "volume_24h": 11886.094336000002,
          "liquidity": 247551.68082,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 21.65,
              "delta_points": -0.2,
              "volume_window": 10268.3812
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 24.95,
              "delta_points": -3.5,
              "volume_window": 210429.08399100023
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 21.45,
              "previous_probability": 7.5,
              "delta_points": 13.95,
              "volume_window": 1537838.4394100015
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 21.45,
          "previous_probability": 7.5,
          "delta_points": 13.95,
          "volume_window": 1537838.4394100015,
          "volume_24h": 10268.3812,
          "liquidity": 225277.4222,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.05,
              "delta_points": 0.2,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 8.85,
              "delta_points": 0.4,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.55,
              "delta_points": -0.3,
              "volume_window": 35136.225738
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 9.65,
              "delta_points": -0.4,
              "volume_window": 160877.566687
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 9.25,
              "previous_probability": 25.0,
              "delta_points": -15.75,
              "volume_window": 1227748.194995001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 9.25,
          "previous_probability": 25.0,
          "delta_points": -15.75,
          "volume_window": 1227748.194995001,
          "volume_24h": 35136.225738,
          "liquidity": 197535.43853,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 5.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 5.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 174032.05022599996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 5.5,
              "previous_probability": 10.5,
              "delta_points": -5.0,
              "volume_window": 319856.810127
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.5,
          "previous_probability": 10.5,
          "delta_points": -5.0,
          "volume_window": 319856.810127,
          "volume_24h": 174032.05022599996,
          "liquidity": 189300.7248,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.45,
              "delta_points": -0.1,
              "volume_window": 24206.871170000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.35,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 24206.871170000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.25,
              "delta_points": 0.1,
              "volume_window": 234305.84256199995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 9.9,
              "delta_points": -6.55,
              "volume_window": 1693026.964686001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.35,
          "previous_probability": 3.45,
          "delta_points": -0.1,
          "volume_window": 24206.871170000002,
          "volume_24h": 24206.871170000002,
          "liquidity": 186622.10018,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "7d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 3.25,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 3.2,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 2.4,
              "delta_points": 0.8,
              "volume_window": 34441.698750999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 2.15,
              "volume_window": 224373.97880900005
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 3.2,
              "previous_probability": 0.65,
              "delta_points": 2.55,
              "volume_window": 848807.8612980003
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.2,
          "previous_probability": 1.05,
          "delta_points": 2.15,
          "volume_window": 224373.97880900005,
          "volume_24h": 34441.698750999996,
          "liquidity": 120185.40751,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "question": "Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.5,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 17686.052854
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.35,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 17686.052854
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 1.35,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.3,
              "volume_window": 87155.775381
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.35,
          "previous_probability": 1.5,
          "delta_points": -0.15,
          "volume_window": 17686.052854,
          "volume_24h": 17686.052854,
          "liquidity": 95860.99406,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 31,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 31,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [
        "polymarket:will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor"
      ],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [
        "polymarket:will-fabian-ruiz-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-kylian-mbapp-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-lamine-yamal-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-ousmane-dembl-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "polymarket:will-rodri-win-the-2026-ballon-dor"
      ],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d",
        "30d"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d",
        "30d"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 2,
      "editorialWindowRank": 2,
      "editorial_topic_key": "sports",
      "editorialTopicKey": "sports",
      "story_window": "30d",
      "storyWindow": "30d",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "30d",
        "event_id": "48361",
        "event_slug": "ballon-dor-winner-2026",
        "event_title": "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 76.76,
          "homepage_score": 76.76,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor_30d",
        "market_id": "polymarket:will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "will-harry-kane-win-the-2026-ballon-dor",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 51.55,
        "previous_probability": 23.35,
        "delta_points": 28.2,
        "window": "30d",
        "volume_24h": 29618.06756300001,
        "liquidity": 443255.29036,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 76.76,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 76.76,
          "homepage_score": 76.76,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "30d",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
      "market_id": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "marketId": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
      "headline": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 odds collapse from 64% to 51% over 24h",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "event_id": "34889",
      "eventId": "34889",
      "event_slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
      "eventSlug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
      "event_title": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?",
      "eventTitle": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?",
      "condition_id": "0x1e5204036bd51e6ca0e0da6221319c5839bd9940782adc6d0f6fa703aa8a3bf4",
      "question_id": "0x55d158bef7878f243d5ba5c2cc43ce52d8fa57785708f1c261305acbff6219bf",
      "yes_token_id": "3833250547311424992805456252782158332407335422350263044535636678503072819141",
      "no_token_id": "30676432546818066080538703205639237969080188796746196694446265523208566227883",
      "market_start_date": "2026-06-30T21:17:20.924276Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "marketSlug": "will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "24h",
      "dominant_window": "24h",
      "current_probability": 51.0,
      "probability": 51.0,
      "previous_probability": 63.5,
      "previousProbability": 63.5,
      "delta_points": -12.5,
      "deltaPoints": -12.5,
      "volume_24h": 45698.918179,
      "volume24h": 45698.918179,
      "volume_window": 45698.918179,
      "volumeWindow": 45698.918179,
      "volumeRaw": 45698.918179,
      "relevant_volume": 45698.918179,
      "relevantVolume": 45698.918179,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 65480.3488,
      "liquidityRaw": 65480.3488,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 40.5,
      "editorialScore": 40.5,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"24h\", \"event_id\": \"34889\", \"event_slug\": \"will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31\", \"event_title\": \"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 40.5, \"homepage_score\": 40.5, \"live_move_score\": 100.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 40.5,
        "live_move_score": 100.0,
        "homepage_score": 40.5
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31:24h:down:1:5",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31:24h:down:1:5",
      "source_relative_quality": 12.655913,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:34889",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:34889",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
          "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 52.0,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 55.0,
              "delta_points": -4.0,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 63.5,
              "delta_points": -12.5,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 51.0,
          "previous_probability": 63.5,
          "delta_points": -12.5,
          "volume_window": 45698.918179,
          "volume_24h": 45698.918179,
          "liquidity": 65480.3488,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
          "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 52.0,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 55.0,
              "delta_points": -4.0,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 51.0,
              "previous_probability": 63.5,
              "delta_points": -12.5,
              "volume_window": 45698.918179
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 51.0,
          "previous_probability": 63.5,
          "delta_points": -12.5,
          "volume_window": 45698.918179,
          "volume_24h": 45698.918179,
          "liquidity": 65480.3488,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 2,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 2,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 1,
      "editorialWindowRank": 1,
      "editorial_topic_key": "event-id:34889",
      "editorialTopicKey": "event-id:34889",
      "story_window": "24h",
      "storyWindow": "24h",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "event_id": "34889",
        "event_slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
        "event_title": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 40.5,
          "homepage_score": 40.5,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31_24h",
        "market_id": "polymarket:will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 51.0,
        "previous_probability": 63.5,
        "delta_points": -12.5,
        "window": "24h",
        "volume_24h": 45698.918179,
        "liquidity": 65480.3488,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 40.5,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 40.5,
          "homepage_score": 40.5,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
      "market_id": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "marketId": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
      "headline": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 odds collapse from 50% to 24% over 30d",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "event_id": "660109",
      "eventId": "660109",
      "event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "eventSlug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "event_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
      "eventTitle": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
      "condition_id": "0xa08a5ce99e14ce0b22767af6f16c08a2ab012249444c20887193a9a3e98e11fc",
      "question_id": "0xcd7e5984ab420bbfab2128af947491f62f82d7bb6b63a825e6e5a82c588343dd",
      "yes_token_id": "23545193122217391289335133742859160842475987880562465754342378273033942179195",
      "no_token_id": "111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830",
      "market_start_date": "2026-07-02T21:49:47.480763Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "marketSlug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "30d",
      "dominant_window": "30d",
      "current_probability": 23.5,
      "probability": 23.5,
      "previous_probability": 49.5,
      "previousProbability": 49.5,
      "delta_points": -26.0,
      "deltaPoints": -26.0,
      "volume_24h": 169121.69212599998,
      "volume24h": 169121.69212599998,
      "volume_window": 1750330.433531,
      "volumeWindow": 1750330.433531,
      "volumeRaw": 1750330.433531,
      "relevant_volume": 1750330.433531,
      "relevantVolume": 1750330.433531,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 269932.6197,
      "liquidityRaw": 269932.6197,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 72.8,
      "editorialScore": 72.8,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"30d\", \"event_id\": \"660109\", \"event_slug\": \"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440\", \"event_title\": \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 72.8, \"homepage_score\": 72.8, \"live_move_score\": 100.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 72.8,
        "live_move_score": 100.0,
        "homepage_score": 72.8
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440:30d:down:1:2",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440:30d:down:1:2",
      "source_relative_quality": 12.558046,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:660109",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:660109",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
          "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 26.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 1018769.2308540004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -26.0,
              "volume_window": 1750330.433531
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 23.5,
          "previous_probability": 49.5,
          "delta_points": -26.0,
          "volume_window": 1750330.433531,
          "volume_24h": 169121.69212599998,
          "liquidity": 269932.6197,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
          "market_id": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
          "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
          "window": "30d",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d",
            "30d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 169121.69212599998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 26.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 1018769.2308540004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
              "window": "30d",
              "current_probability": 23.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -26.0,
              "volume_window": 1750330.433531
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 23.5,
          "previous_probability": 49.5,
          "delta_points": -26.0,
          "volume_window": 1750330.433531,
          "volume_24h": 169121.69212599998,
          "liquidity": 269932.6197,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 4,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 4,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 3,
      "editorialWindowRank": 3,
      "editorial_topic_key": "geo:hormuz",
      "editorialTopicKey": "geo:hormuz",
      "story_window": "30d",
      "storyWindow": "30d",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "30d",
        "event_id": "660109",
        "event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
        "event_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 72.8,
          "homepage_score": 72.8,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440_30d",
        "market_id": "polymarket:strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 23.5,
        "previous_probability": 49.5,
        "delta_points": -26.0,
        "window": "30d",
        "volume_24h": 169121.69212599998,
        "liquidity": 269932.6197,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 72.8,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 72.8,
          "homepage_score": 72.8,
          "live_move_score": 100.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "30d",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
      "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "marketId": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?",
      "headline": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 odds collapse from 76% to 69% over 6h",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "event_id": "707496",
      "eventId": "707496",
      "event_slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042",
      "eventSlug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042",
      "event_title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)",
      "eventTitle": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)",
      "condition_id": "0x61c2b9e70f7fdf3441fd1cfa2c8fa93308fefe3f5ecc2db87c393efab3a207a3",
      "question_id": "0x709a5570f6b523c09cbd2a4431b28e003a95d1c5b2e501eef46ae141a97c8b6e",
      "yes_token_id": "71362371729199006098022300209907327715487157091100600861193647274302527146623",
      "no_token_id": "19481059675849073197346646944327368414853269458422440354312650320744503267393",
      "market_start_date": "2026-07-15T19:54:22.857787Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "marketSlug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "6h",
      "dominant_window": "6h",
      "current_probability": 69.0,
      "probability": 69.0,
      "previous_probability": 76.5,
      "previousProbability": 76.5,
      "delta_points": -7.5,
      "deltaPoints": -7.5,
      "volume_24h": 76124.11863899998,
      "volume24h": 76124.11863899998,
      "volume_window": null,
      "volumeWindow": null,
      "volumeRaw": 76124.11863899998,
      "relevant_volume": 76124.11863899998,
      "relevantVolume": 76124.11863899998,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 87067.3786,
      "liquidityRaw": 87067.3786,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_clob_history",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_clob_history",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.6,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 66.5,
      "editorialScore": 66.5,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"6h\", \"event_id\": \"707496\", \"event_slug\": \"us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042\", \"event_title\": \"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_clob_history\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 66.5, \"homepage_score\": 66.5, \"live_move_score\": 60.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 66.5,
        "live_move_score": 60.0,
        "homepage_score": 66.5
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047:6h:down:1:6",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047:6h:down:1:6",
      "source_relative_quality": 12.285714,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:707496",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:707496",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
          "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 71.5,
              "delta_points": -2.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 76.5,
              "delta_points": -7.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 72.5,
              "delta_points": -3.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 69.5,
              "delta_points": -0.5,
              "volume_window": 429386.7999090004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 69.0,
          "previous_probability": 76.5,
          "delta_points": -7.5,
          "volume_window": 76124.11863899998,
          "volume_24h": 76124.11863899998,
          "liquidity": 87067.3786,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046",
          "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 62.0,
              "delta_points": -0.5,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 67.5,
              "delta_points": -6.0,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 66.5,
              "delta_points": -5.0,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 63.5,
              "delta_points": -2.0,
              "volume_window": 540171.4192280001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 61.5,
          "previous_probability": 67.5,
          "delta_points": -6.0,
          "volume_window": 112090.12527399995,
          "volume_24h": 112090.12527399995,
          "liquidity": 65803.5739,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
          "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 71.5,
              "delta_points": -2.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 76.5,
              "delta_points": -7.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 72.5,
              "delta_points": -3.5,
              "volume_window": 76124.11863899998
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 69.0,
              "previous_probability": 69.5,
              "delta_points": -0.5,
              "volume_window": 429386.7999090004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 69.0,
          "previous_probability": 76.5,
          "delta_points": -7.5,
          "volume_window": 76124.11863899998,
          "volume_24h": 76124.11863899998,
          "liquidity": 87067.3786,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046",
          "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h",
            "7d"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 62.0,
              "delta_points": -0.5,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 67.5,
              "delta_points": -6.0,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 66.5,
              "delta_points": -5.0,
              "volume_window": 112090.12527399995
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046_7d",
              "window": "7d",
              "current_probability": 61.5,
              "previous_probability": 63.5,
              "delta_points": -2.0,
              "volume_window": 540171.4192280001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 61.5,
          "previous_probability": 67.5,
          "delta_points": -6.0,
          "volume_window": 112090.12527399995,
          "volume_24h": 112090.12527399995,
          "liquidity": 65803.5739,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 7,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 7,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [
        "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046"
      ],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [
        "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-14-20260715194822046"
      ],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h",
        "7d"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 2,
      "editorialWindowRank": 2,
      "editorial_topic_key": "geo:iran",
      "editorialTopicKey": "geo:iran",
      "story_window": "6h",
      "storyWindow": "6h",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_clob_history",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "6h",
        "event_id": "707496",
        "event_slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042",
        "event_title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_clob_history",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 66.5,
          "homepage_score": 66.5,
          "live_move_score": 60.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047_6h",
        "market_id": "polymarket:us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-august-31-20260715194822047",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 69.0,
        "previous_probability": 76.5,
        "delta_points": -7.5,
        "window": "6h",
        "volume_24h": 76124.11863899998,
        "liquidity": 87067.3786,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 66.5,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 66.5,
          "homepage_score": 66.5,
          "live_move_score": 60.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "6h",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
      "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "marketId": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?",
      "headline": "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August odds collapse from 59% to 48% over 24h",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "event_id": "780132",
      "eventId": "780132",
      "event_slug": "what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026",
      "eventSlug": "what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026",
      "event_title": "What price will Bitcoin hit in August?",
      "eventTitle": "What price will Bitcoin hit in August?",
      "condition_id": "0x211f2f58d38d8022f3d71a99685ebec3ff12a396118c38e8fb97fdcab53ded1e",
      "question_id": "0x1385a5862ad4c221300725466042d73a8bc72c2f1d56d018caf11960c46899a3",
      "yes_token_id": "88902974378195889166057110964513688920047250482309636378282580896757420591128",
      "no_token_id": "27073303004572553849637491269750009119441121163110046345436572485239448486478",
      "market_start_date": "2026-08-01T05:07:37Z",
      "market_end_date": "2026-09-01T04:00:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "marketSlug": "will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "24h",
      "dominant_window": "24h",
      "current_probability": 48.5,
      "probability": 48.5,
      "previous_probability": 59.0,
      "previousProbability": 59.0,
      "delta_points": -10.5,
      "deltaPoints": -10.5,
      "volume_24h": 29431.428668000004,
      "volume24h": 29431.428668000004,
      "volume_window": 29431.428668000004,
      "volumeWindow": 29431.428668000004,
      "volumeRaw": 29431.428668000004,
      "relevant_volume": 29431.428668000004,
      "relevantVolume": 29431.428668000004,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 43035.5474,
      "liquidityRaw": 43035.5474,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 53.9,
      "editorialScore": 53.9,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"24h\", \"event_id\": \"780132\", \"event_slug\": \"what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026\", \"event_title\": \"What price will Bitcoin hit in August?\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 53.9, \"homepage_score\": 53.9, \"live_move_score\": 84.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 53.9,
        "live_move_score": 84.0,
        "homepage_score": 53.9
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026:24h:down:1:4",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026:24h:down:1:4",
      "source_relative_quality": 10.554514,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:780132",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:780132",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 59.0,
              "delta_points": -10.5,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 48.5,
          "previous_probability": 59.0,
          "delta_points": -10.5,
          "volume_window": 29431.428668000004,
          "volume_24h": 29431.428668000004,
          "liquidity": 43035.5474,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 5.4,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 4.6,
              "delta_points": 0.75,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 5.75,
              "delta_points": -0.4,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.35,
          "previous_probability": 4.6,
          "delta_points": 0.75,
          "volume_window": 75432.30495499999,
          "volume_24h": 75432.30495499999,
          "liquidity": 86364.85808,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.65,
              "delta_points": -0.2,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.6,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.5,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.45,
          "previous_probability": 5.65,
          "delta_points": -0.2,
          "volume_window": 55905.414386,
          "volume_24h": 55905.414386,
          "liquidity": 76103.36208,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.9,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.75,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.8,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
          "previous_probability": 1.9,
          "delta_points": -0.15,
          "volume_window": 41265.879662,
          "volume_24h": 41265.879662,
          "liquidity": 75353.7879,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.25,
              "previous_probability": 1.3,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 15481.922005000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.25,
              "previous_probability": 1.25,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 15481.922005000002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.25,
          "previous_probability": 1.3,
          "delta_points": -0.05,
          "volume_window": 15481.922005000002,
          "volume_24h": 15481.922005000002,
          "liquidity": 73035.82199,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 0.95,
              "delta_points": 0.15,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 0.85,
              "delta_points": 0.25,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
          "previous_probability": 0.85,
          "delta_points": 0.25,
          "volume_window": 67369.36842299999,
          "volume_24h": 67369.36842299999,
          "liquidity": 71186.94249,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.65,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.45,
              "delta_points": 0.15,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.85,
              "delta_points": -0.25,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 2.6,
          "previous_probability": 2.45,
          "delta_points": 0.15,
          "volume_window": 33904.814374,
          "volume_24h": 33904.814374,
          "liquidity": 68277.7256,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.4,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.1,
              "delta_points": 0.25,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.05,
              "delta_points": 0.3,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.35,
          "previous_probability": 3.1,
          "delta_points": 0.25,
          "volume_window": 54595.59292400001,
          "volume_24h": 54595.59292400001,
          "liquidity": 60819.67098,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 14.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 14.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 18.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 15.5,
          "previous_probability": 18.5,
          "delta_points": -3.0,
          "volume_window": 66176.22772100002,
          "volume_24h": 66176.22772100002,
          "liquidity": 60471.5647,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 11.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 8.5,
          "previous_probability": 11.5,
          "delta_points": -3.0,
          "volume_window": 61995.890996,
          "volume_24h": 61995.890996,
          "liquidity": 58850.4702,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 12.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 12.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 10.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 11.5,
          "previous_probability": 12.5,
          "delta_points": -1.0,
          "volume_window": 38519.81546499999,
          "volume_24h": 38519.81546499999,
          "liquidity": 54536.3861,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 83.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 82.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 74.5,
              "delta_points": 8.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 82.5,
          "previous_probability": 74.5,
          "delta_points": 8.0,
          "volume_window": 25554.176516000003,
          "volume_24h": 25554.176516000003,
          "liquidity": 51572.3779,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 50.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 50.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 45.0,
              "delta_points": 5.5,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 50.5,
          "previous_probability": 45.0,
          "delta_points": 5.5,
          "volume_window": 45770.00913700001,
          "volume_24h": 45770.00913700001,
          "liquidity": 49578.4377,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.55,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.55,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.65,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.6,
          "previous_probability": 1.55,
          "delta_points": 0.05,
          "volume_window": 38769.159002,
          "volume_24h": 38769.159002,
          "liquidity": 48242.44993,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 26.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": 2.0,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 26.5,
          "previous_probability": 27.5,
          "delta_points": -1.0,
          "volume_window": 38825.442216999996,
          "volume_24h": 38825.442216999996,
          "liquidity": 43742.0305,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 33.5,
              "delta_points": -7.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 26.5,
          "previous_probability": 33.5,
          "delta_points": -7.0,
          "volume_window": 41821.034933,
          "volume_24h": 41821.034933,
          "liquidity": 42132.9082,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 49.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 48.5,
              "previous_probability": 59.0,
              "delta_points": -10.5,
              "volume_window": 29431.428668000004
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 48.5,
          "previous_probability": 59.0,
          "delta_points": -10.5,
          "volume_window": 29431.428668000004,
          "volume_24h": 29431.428668000004,
          "liquidity": 43035.5474,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": true
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 5.4,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 4.6,
              "delta_points": 0.75,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.35,
              "previous_probability": 5.75,
              "delta_points": -0.4,
              "volume_window": 75432.30495499999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.35,
          "previous_probability": 4.6,
          "delta_points": 0.75,
          "volume_window": 75432.30495499999,
          "volume_24h": 75432.30495499999,
          "liquidity": 86364.85808,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.65,
              "delta_points": -0.2,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.6,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 5.45,
              "previous_probability": 5.5,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 55905.414386
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 5.45,
          "previous_probability": 5.65,
          "delta_points": -0.2,
          "volume_window": 55905.414386,
          "volume_24h": 55905.414386,
          "liquidity": 76103.36208,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.9,
              "delta_points": -0.15,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.75,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
              "previous_probability": 1.8,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 41265.879662
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.7500000000000002,
          "previous_probability": 1.9,
          "delta_points": -0.15,
          "volume_window": 41265.879662,
          "volume_24h": 41265.879662,
          "liquidity": 75353.7879,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.25,
              "previous_probability": 1.3,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 15481.922005000002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.25,
              "previous_probability": 1.25,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 15481.922005000002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.25,
          "previous_probability": 1.3,
          "delta_points": -0.05,
          "volume_window": 15481.922005000002,
          "volume_24h": 15481.922005000002,
          "liquidity": 73035.82199,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 0.95,
              "delta_points": 0.15,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 0.85,
              "delta_points": 0.25,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
              "previous_probability": 1.05,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 67369.36842299999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.0999999999999999,
          "previous_probability": 0.85,
          "delta_points": 0.25,
          "volume_window": 67369.36842299999,
          "volume_24h": 67369.36842299999,
          "liquidity": 71186.94249,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.65,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.45,
              "delta_points": 0.15,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 2.6,
              "previous_probability": 2.85,
              "delta_points": -0.25,
              "volume_window": 33904.814374
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 2.6,
          "previous_probability": 2.45,
          "delta_points": 0.15,
          "volume_window": 33904.814374,
          "volume_24h": 33904.814374,
          "liquidity": 68277.7256,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.4,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.1,
              "delta_points": 0.25,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 3.35,
              "previous_probability": 3.05,
              "delta_points": 0.3,
              "volume_window": 54595.59292400001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 3.35,
          "previous_probability": 3.1,
          "delta_points": 0.25,
          "volume_window": 54595.59292400001,
          "volume_24h": 54595.59292400001,
          "liquidity": 60819.67098,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 14.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 14.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 15.5,
              "previous_probability": 18.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 66176.22772100002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 15.5,
          "previous_probability": 18.5,
          "delta_points": -3.0,
          "volume_window": 66176.22772100002,
          "volume_24h": 66176.22772100002,
          "liquidity": 60471.5647,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 8.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 8.5,
              "previous_probability": 11.5,
              "delta_points": -3.0,
              "volume_window": 61995.890996
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 8.5,
          "previous_probability": 11.5,
          "delta_points": -3.0,
          "volume_window": 61995.890996,
          "volume_24h": 61995.890996,
          "liquidity": 58850.4702,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 12.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 12.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 11.5,
              "previous_probability": 10.5,
              "delta_points": 1.0,
              "volume_window": 38519.81546499999
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 11.5,
          "previous_probability": 12.5,
          "delta_points": -1.0,
          "volume_window": 38519.81546499999,
          "volume_24h": 38519.81546499999,
          "liquidity": 54536.3861,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 83.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 82.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 82.5,
              "previous_probability": 74.5,
              "delta_points": 8.0,
              "volume_window": 25554.176516000003
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 82.5,
          "previous_probability": 74.5,
          "delta_points": 8.0,
          "volume_window": 25554.176516000003,
          "volume_24h": 25554.176516000003,
          "liquidity": 51572.3779,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 50.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 50.5,
              "delta_points": 0.0,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 50.5,
              "previous_probability": 45.0,
              "delta_points": 5.5,
              "volume_window": 45770.00913700001
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 50.5,
          "previous_probability": 45.0,
          "delta_points": 5.5,
          "volume_window": 45770.00913700001,
          "volume_24h": 45770.00913700001,
          "liquidity": 49578.4377,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_1h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?",
          "window": "1h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.55,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.55,
              "delta_points": 0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 1.6,
              "previous_probability": 1.65,
              "delta_points": -0.05,
              "volume_window": 38769.159002
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 1.6,
          "previous_probability": 1.55,
          "delta_points": 0.05,
          "volume_window": 38769.159002,
          "volume_24h": 38769.159002,
          "liquidity": 48242.44993,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_6h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?",
          "window": "6h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 26.0,
              "delta_points": 0.5,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 24.5,
              "delta_points": 2.0,
              "volume_window": 38825.442216999996
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 26.5,
          "previous_probability": 27.5,
          "delta_points": -1.0,
          "volume_window": 38825.442216999996,
          "volume_24h": 38825.442216999996,
          "liquidity": 43742.0305,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        },
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 27.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 26.5,
              "previous_probability": 33.5,
              "delta_points": -7.0,
              "volume_window": 41821.034933
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 26.5,
          "previous_probability": 33.5,
          "delta_points": -7.0,
          "volume_window": 41821.034933,
          "volume_24h": 41821.034933,
          "liquidity": 42132.9082,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
          "is_selected_market": false
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 46,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 46,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026"
      ],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-40k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-42pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-47pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026",
        "polymarket:will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-august-2026"
      ],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h",
        "24h"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 2,
      "editorialWindowRank": 2,
      "editorial_topic_key": "crypto:bitcoin",
      "editorialTopicKey": "crypto:bitcoin",
      "story_window": "24h",
      "storyWindow": "24h",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "event_id": "780132",
        "event_slug": "what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026",
        "event_title": "What price will Bitcoin hit in August?",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 53.9,
          "homepage_score": 53.9,
          "live_move_score": 84.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026_24h",
        "market_id": "polymarket:will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 48.5,
        "previous_probability": 59.0,
        "delta_points": -10.5,
        "window": "24h",
        "volume_24h": 29431.428668000004,
        "liquidity": 43035.5474,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 53.9,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 53.9,
          "homepage_score": 53.9,
          "live_move_score": 84.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
      "signalId": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
      "market_id": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "marketId": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "source": "Polymarket",
      "source_key": "polymarket",
      "sourceKey": "polymarket",
      "question": "Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?",
      "headline": "Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards odds collapse from 32% to 22% over 24h",
      "category": "World",
      "slug": "will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "event_id": "761737",
      "eventId": "761737",
      "event_slug": "oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-20260727174350980",
      "eventSlug": "oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-20260727174350980",
      "event_title": "Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner",
      "eventTitle": "Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner",
      "condition_id": "0x0886c17000a2bf15a759dfef6379dbf907e50ec5dffa462a9bae221578d1a908",
      "question_id": "0x333dad873cc2f8357294c6791f911b951e83ca5e30ab7a091b910b791efe3805",
      "yes_token_id": "24267163544996140442239946221196996886272499087453231954021872658376535782532",
      "no_token_id": "11052146281974455591329312374271371465989756106035372411939760387565010963843",
      "market_start_date": "2026-07-28T15:38:45.843839Z",
      "market_end_date": "2027-03-14T23:59:00Z",
      "active": 1,
      "closed": 0,
      "archived": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": 1,
      "market_slug": "will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "marketSlug": "will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "sourceUrl": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
      "sourceUrlOk": true,
      "window": "24h",
      "dominant_window": "24h",
      "current_probability": 21.5,
      "probability": 21.5,
      "previous_probability": 31.5,
      "previousProbability": 31.5,
      "delta_points": -10.0,
      "deltaPoints": -10.0,
      "volume_24h": 28613.989997,
      "volume24h": 28613.989997,
      "volume_window": 28613.989997,
      "volumeWindow": 28613.989997,
      "volumeRaw": 28613.989997,
      "relevant_volume": 28613.989997,
      "relevantVolume": 28613.989997,
      "liquidityRequired": 0.0,
      "qualificationReason": "lifecycle_ledger_qualified",
      "gateVersion": "polymarket_lifecycle_ledger_v1",
      "liquidity": 16834.4722,
      "liquidityRaw": 16834.4722,
      "activity_value": null,
      "activityValue": null,
      "activity_unit": null,
      "activityUnit": null,
      "liquidity_unit": null,
      "liquidityUnit": null,
      "top_of_book_depth_dollars": null,
      "evidence_provider": null,
      "source_public_contract": null,
      "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "history_provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "updated_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "prior_observed_at": null,
      "coverage_status": "checked",
      "coverage_confidence": 0.8,
      "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
      "triggerType": "belief_shift",
      "status": "candidate",
      "route": "live_move",
      "editorial_score": 28.0,
      "editorialScore": 28.0,
      "decision_json": "{\"coverage_status\": \"checked\", \"dominant_window\": \"24h\", \"event_id\": \"761737\", \"event_slug\": \"oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-20260727174350980\", \"event_title\": \"Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner\", \"live_observed_at\": \"2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z\", \"provider\": \"polymarket_cached_fields\", \"route\": \"live_move\", \"scores\": {\"api_score\": 28.0, \"homepage_score\": 28.0, \"live_move_score\": 80.0}, \"source\": \"belief_shift_selector\"}",
      "scores": {
        "api_score": 28.0,
        "live_move_score": 80.0,
        "homepage_score": 28.0
      },
      "story_url": null,
      "storyUrl": null,
      "storyUrlOk": false,
      "hasStory": false,
      "movement_episode_key": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986:24h:down:1:2",
      "movementEpisodeKey": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986:24h:down:1:2",
      "source_relative_quality": 10.289119,
      "editorial_event_key": "event-id:761737",
      "editorialEventKey": "event-id:761737",
      "qualified_event_branches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
          "question": "Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 22.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 22.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 31.5,
              "delta_points": -10.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 21.5,
          "previous_probability": 31.5,
          "delta_points": -10.0,
          "volume_window": 28613.989997,
          "volume_24h": 28613.989997,
          "liquidity": 16834.4722,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "qualifiedEventBranches": [
        {
          "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
          "market_id": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
          "question": "Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?",
          "window": "24h",
          "qualified_windows": [
            "1h",
            "6h",
            "24h"
          ],
          "movement_evidence": [
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_1h",
              "window": "1h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 22.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_6h",
              "window": "6h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 22.5,
              "delta_points": -1.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            },
            {
              "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
              "window": "24h",
              "current_probability": 21.5,
              "previous_probability": 31.5,
              "delta_points": -10.0,
              "volume_window": 28613.989997
            }
          ],
          "current_probability": 21.5,
          "previous_probability": 31.5,
          "delta_points": -10.0,
          "volume_window": 28613.989997,
          "volume_24h": 28613.989997,
          "liquidity": 16834.4722,
          "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
          "is_selected_market": true
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_event_candidate_count": 2,
      "suppressedEventCandidateCount": 2,
      "suppressed_event_market_ids": [],
      "suppressedEventMarketIds": [],
      "suppressed_event_windows": [
        "1h",
        "6h"
      ],
      "suppressedEventWindows": [
        "1h",
        "6h"
      ],
      "editorial_window_rank": 3,
      "editorialWindowRank": 3,
      "editorial_topic_key": "event-id:761737",
      "editorialTopicKey": "event-id:761737",
      "story_window": "24h",
      "storyWindow": "24h",
      "evidenceObservedAt": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
      "evidence_source": "polymarket_cached_fields",
      "decision": {
        "coverage_status": "checked",
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "event_id": "761737",
        "event_slug": "oscars-2027-best-actress-winner-20260727174350980",
        "event_title": "Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner",
        "live_observed_at": "2026-08-04T03:01:29.859966Z",
        "provider": "polymarket_cached_fields",
        "route": "live_move",
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 28.0,
          "homepage_score": 28.0,
          "live_move_score": 80.0
        },
        "source": "belief_shift_selector"
      },
      "id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
      "clusterKey": null,
      "edge": {
        "signal_id": "belief_2026-08-04_polymarket-will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986_24h",
        "market_id": "polymarket:will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
        "source": "Polymarket",
        "source_key": "polymarket",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
        "source_url_ok": true,
        "question": "Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?",
        "category": "World",
        "slug": "will-julianne-moore-win-best-actress-at-the-99th-academy-awards-20260727174350986",
        "cluster_key": null,
        "trigger_type": "belief_shift",
        "probability": 21.5,
        "previous_probability": 31.5,
        "delta_points": -10.0,
        "window": "24h",
        "volume_24h": 28613.989997,
        "liquidity": 16834.4722,
        "severity": null,
        "confidence": null,
        "detected_at": "2026-08-04T03:27:19.685379Z",
        "status": "candidate",
        "editorial_score": 28.0,
        "reason_codes": null,
        "scores": {
          "api_score": 28.0,
          "homepage_score": 28.0,
          "live_move_score": 80.0
        },
        "freshness_label": "fresh",
        "route": "live_move",
        "story_type": "live_repricing",
        "lifecycle_status": "published_active",
        "is_duplicate_suppressed": false,
        "dominant_window": "24h",
        "supporting_windows": []
      }
    }
  ],
  "meta": {
    "count": 7,
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-04T04:09:03.255996Z"
  }
}